Lesson 1 EV on River 2017/07/16

PokerStars Zoom Hand #173092132144:  Hold'em No Limit ($0.02/$0.05) - 2017/07/16 2:12:14 ET
Table 'Hyakutake' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: 111MACTEP111 ($5.09 in chips)
Seat 2: Clifffffff ($4.13 in chips) SB
Seat 3: vobler1980 ($0.69 in chips)
Seat 4: Xo4y-2-Tyza ($5 in chips)
Seat 5: Rudi76IZ ($7.37 in chips)
Seat 6: lagry73 ($5.44 in chips) MP+1
Seat 7: RiGiLeR20 ($15.82 in chips)
Seat 8: Vaassir ($2.76 in chips)
Seat 9: TimTolle ($9.61 in chips)
Clifffffff: posts small blind $0.02
vobler1980: posts big blind $0.05
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Clifffffff [5d Kd]
Xo4y-2-Tyza: folds
Rudi76IZ: folds
lagry73: raises $0.10 to $0.15
RiGiLeR20: folds
Vaassir: folds
TimTolle: folds
111MACTEP111: folds
Clifffffff: calls $0.13
vobler1980: folds
*** FLOP *** [4h Kc 7d]
Clifffffff: checks
lagry73: bets $0.17
Clifffffff: calls $0.17
*** TURN *** [4h Kc 7d] [4s]
Clifffffff: checks
lagry73: bets $0.33
Clifffffff: calls $0.33
*** RIVER *** [4h Kc 7d 4s] [9h], Pot size 1.25
Clifffffff: checks
lagry73: bets $0.55
Clifffffff: calls $0.55
*** SHOW DOWN ***
lagry73: shows [Ac Kh] (two pair, Kings and Fours)
Clifffffff: mucks hand
lagry73 collected $2.35 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $2.45 | Rake $0.10
Board [4h Kc 7d 4s 9h]

#### Calculate by Cliff
1. Cliff need the win rate on river is 0.22 (0.55/2.45)
2. Calculate all conditions
full house is 4Ks(0), 47s(0), 49s(0), KK(3), 77(3), 99(3)
strip is 0
set is 34s(1), 45s(1)
two pairs is 7Ks(0.5), 79s(1), 9Ks(4)
one pairs is AKs(4), AKo(12), QKs(4), JKs(4), TKs(4), 6Ks(2), 7Ks(2), 8Ks(2)
one pairs even is 5Ks(2)
one pairs win is 2Ks(0), 3Ks(0), 78s(4), 67s(4), 9Ts(0.5), 89s(0.5)
high card is AQs(2), AJs(0), ATs(0), A8s(0), A7s(0), A6s(0), A5s(0), A3s(0) A2s(0)

Loss is 50.5
Win is 11
so Win rate is = 0.17 (11/61.5)

Action should fold