Lesson 1 EV on River 2017/07/18

PokerStars Zoom Hand #173184883568:  Hold'em No Limit ($0.02/$0.05) - 2017/07/18 5:00:48 ET
Table 'Hyakutake' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: papas000 ($3.04 in chips)
Seat 2: AlexDa88 ($14.03 in chips)
Seat 3: Zahorod ($6.29 in chips)
Seat 4: Al Savelyev ($8.21 in chips)
Seat 5: Clifffffff ($4.93 in chips)
Seat 6: keks0MII ($10.19 in chips)
Seat 7: space311 ($5.52 in chips)
Seat 8: Zhitomir111 ($5.93 in chips)
Seat 9: djem1070 ($11.95 in chips)
AlexDa88: posts small blind $0.02
Zahorod: posts big blind $0.05
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Clifffffff [9c 9h]
Al Savelyev: folds
Clifffffff: raises $0.10 to $0.15
keks0MII: folds
space311: folds
Zhitomir111: folds
djem1070: folds
papas000: calls $0.15
AlexDa88: folds
Zahorod: folds
*** FLOP *** [4s Th 5s]
Clifffffff: checks
papas000: bets $0.18
Clifffffff: calls $0.18
*** TURN *** [4s Th 5s] [5h]
Clifffffff: checks
papas000: bets $0.35
Clifffffff: calls $0.35
*** RIVER *** [4s Th 5s 5h] [2d] Pot size is 1.54
Clifffffff: checks
papas000: bets $0.69
Clifffffff: calls $0.69
*** SHOW DOWN ***
papas000: shows [Qh Tc] (two pair, Tens and Fives)
Clifffffff: mucks hand
papas000 collected $2.69 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $2.81 | Rake $0.12
Board [4s Th 5s 5h 2d]
Seat 1: papas000 (button) showed [Qh Tc] and won ($2.69) with two pair, Tens and Fives

#### Calculate by Cliff
1. Cliff need the win rate on river is 0.23 (0.69/2.93)
2. Calculate all conditions
full house is 45s(2), 5Ts(1), 52s(1), 44(3), TT(3), 22(3)
strip is A3s(3), 36s(1)
set is 56s(3), 57s(1),
two pairs is 34s(2), 9Ts(4), TJs(4), TQs(4), TKs(4), JJ(1), QQ(1), KK(1), AA(2), ATs(3)
two pairs win is 88(2), 77(1), 66(1)
one pairs win is AKos(3), AQos(3), AJ(3),  67s(2), 89s(2)

Loss is 47
Win is 17
so Win rate is = 0.26 (17/64)

Action should call or fold both is right play